Perspectives Notes - L8: The Task Remaining

Navigating Global Christianity

Todd M. Johnson

Associate Professor of Global Christianity, Gordon-Conwell Theological Seminary

ATLAS OF GLOBAL CHRISTIANITY edited by Todd M. Johnson and Kenneth R. Ross (Edinburgh University Press, 2009)

• First scholarly atlas to document the shift of Christianity to the Global South
• Contextual maps of world issues and major religious traditions
• Global coverage of religious freedom and religious diversity
• First atlas to map religious affiliation at the provincial level
• Ecumenical and global coverage, including all Christian traditions in every country
• Full-color maps of Christian affiliation in every United Nations region in the world
• Historical essays on Christianity 1910-2010 by 64 scholars from every region
• Interactive presentation assistant on CD of all maps and graphics for classroom use

Resources:
1. Video: The Changing Faces of Persecution by Todd Johnson
Link: http://www.justinlong.org/2014/03/the-changing-faces-of-persecution-by-dr-todd-johnson/

2. Atlas of Global Christianity by Todd Johnson (Sample)
Link: http://www.atlasofglobalchristianity.org/samples.html

3. Mangoes or Bananas?: The Quest for an Authentic Asian Christian Theology by Hwa Yung
Link: http://www.amazon.com/Mangoes-Bananas-Authentic-Christian-Theology/dp/1597529729

4. Disunity in Christ: Uncovering the Hidden Forces that Keep Us Apart by Christena Cleveland
Link: http://www.amazon.com/Disunity-Christ-Uncovering-Hidden-Forces/dp/0830844031

5. Slum Life Rising: How to Enflesh Hope within a New Urban World by Ash Barker
Link: http://www.amazon.com/Slum-Life-Rising-Enflesh-within-ebook/dp/B00860Q8FM

6. God Is Not One: The Eight Rival Religions That Run the World--and Why Their Differences Matter by Stephen Prothero
Link: http://www.amazon.com/God-Not-One-World-Differences-ebook/dp/B003F1WMAC

Trends IN global Christianity

1.      Christianity has shifted dramatically to the South.

We can see that at first glance there has been little change in the status of global Christianity over the past 100 years. For the entire 100-year period, Christians have made up approximately one third of the world’s population. However, this masks dramatic changes in the geography of global Christianity—a process stretching back to the earliest days of the world Christian movement.

The next two slides show us the shift in demographics by continent from 1910 to 2010. While 66% of all Christians lived in Europe in 1910, by 2010 only 25.6% lived there. By contrast, less than 2% of all Christians lived in Africa in 1910, skyrocketing to almost 22% by 2010. The Global North (defined as Europe and Northern America) contained over 80% of all Christians in 1910, falling to under 40% by 2010.

This next series of slides was produced by a Chinese immigrant living in Germany. The icons compare the German way of life (on the left in the blue) with the Chinese way of life (in the red on the right). This comparison is useful for us, as we earlier identified the shift of Christianity from the Global North (e.g., Germany) to the Global South (e.g., China).

·        Punctuality is contrasted in the two societies.

·        In Germany problems are solved by facing them head on. In China, one deals with problems by going around them.

·        Queues in Germany tend to be orderly, whereas those in China are more chaotic.

·        In a similar fashion, opinions in Germany are expressed quite directly, whereas in China it is more polite to take one’s time getting to the point.

·        Germans have limited numbers of direct contacts, whereas the Chinese live in a complex web of relationships.

·        Finally, the solitary life of the German contrasts with the community-based life of the Chinese.

At this point, we might ask how the Chinese worldview might actually align better with the way of life outlined in the Christian scriptures. Could the shift of Christianity to the Global South open up new possibilities for the life and health of Christianity around the world?

With this in view, we might ask, as Bishop Hwa Yung has asked, is the future of Asian Christianity one of “bananas”—where Asian Christians are yellow on the outside but white on the inside (Chinese Christians trained by Germans)—or one of mangoes—where Asian Christians are yellow on the outside and yellow on the inside (Chinese Christians with a Chinese worldview)? Is the demographic shift of Christianity really good news if it is not accompanied by theological reflection from fresh cultural perspectives of more recent members of the global body of Christ?

The Pew Forum on Religion and Public Life recently surveyed Evangelical Protestant Leaders at the Cape Town 2010 meeting. Key findings include a difference of perspective between Christians in the Global South and Global North, major threats to Evangelical Christianity, views of religious groups, and top priorities for evangelization. The report is available at www.pewforum.org.

2.      Christianity is fragmented.

Christians are now found in nearly 41,000 denominations. These range in size from millions of members to fewer than 100 members and are listed for each of the world’s 232 countries in the World Christian Database. Three huts illustrating the anecdote of the man stranded on a desert isle who has a home, a church, and the church he used to attend! By 2025, there will likely be 55,000 denominations.

3.      Christian demographics are determined by six different factors.

The next slide shows the formula for calculating the annual change of Christians in any one country, region, or continent. These six are births, converts, immigrants, deaths, defectors, and emigrants. Mapping these changes globally for 2009-2010 shows a net increase of 27.8 million, which is the result of gains of 65.2 million (45.2 million births and 16 million converts) and losses of 37.4 million (21.8 million deaths and 11.6 million defectors). Thus, the global Christian population in 2009 was 2,265 million, increasing to 2,293 million by 2010.

4.      Christian resources are not evenly distributed.

Christians of the Global South represent 60% of all Christians but receive only about 17% of all Christian income. This puts them at a disadvantage in many areas including health, education, communications, and overall quality of life. This imbalance is one of the great tragedies of global Christianity that could not have been easily predicted by our colleagues in Edinburgh in 1910.

5.      Christians speak a multitude of languages.

Spanish is the number one mother tongue of Christianity. The others in the top 5 are English, Portuguese, Russian, and Mandarin. Note the many non-Western languages climbing up this list of the top 25 mother tongues such as Tagalog, Amharic, Korean, and Yoruba.

6.      Evangelicalism is a dynamic, diverse movement within Christianity.

But how many Evangelicals are there in the world?

The World Christian Database (WCD) estimates there were 98 million Evangelicals in the world in 1970, increasing to 300 million by 2010, with expected growth to 349 million by 2020.

The WCD utilizes a structural definition of all church members self-identifying as Evangelicals, plus Christians who are members of 100% Evangelical denominations.

Operation World (OW), utilizing a theological criterion, estimates there were 124 million Evangelicals worldwide in 1970, growing to 550 million by 2010, with expected growth to over 650 million by 2020.

The OWestimate includes church members who affirm or practice belief in the crucified Christ, an experience of personal conversion, adherence to the Bible as a theological foundation, and active engagement in missionary evangelism.

7.      Pentecostal and Charismatic churches are best conceptualized as part of a single, interconnected set of movements.

We have called these Renewalists in three distinct types: Pentecostals, Charismatics, and Independent Charismatics. Renewalists numbered 62.7 million in 1970 and are expected to grow to 709.8 million by 2020.

Between 1970 and 2010, Renewalist movements grew at nearly four times the growth rates of both Christianity and the world’s population. In 1970 Renewalists were 5.1% of all Christians, but by 2010 they had grown to 25.8% (averaging 4.1% growth per year between 1970 and 2010). By 2020, it is expected that Renewalist movements will grow almost twice as fast as both global Christianity as a whole and the world’s population and will represent 27.8% of all Christians. Between 1970 and 2020, Charismatics were the fastest-growing type of Renewalist, but Pentecostals will grow faster between 2010 and 2020. Charismatics (who are found in all major Christian traditions) averaged 10.5% growth per year over the forty-year period, with Catholic Charismatics maintaining the fastest growth (11.9%). Between 2010 and 2020, Pentecostals will likely grow at 2.3% per year, and Charismatics at 1.9%.

REGIONAL TRENDS

•    Africa experienced the greatest religious change of any continent over the twentieth century.

In 1910, only 9% of Africans were Christians. By 1970 Muslims had replaced ethnoreligionists as the largest group mainly through conversions of tribals. This pattern has continued, and by 2020 Africa will be 49.3% Christian, 41.7% Muslim, and 8.7% ethnoreligionist.

•    The Christian population in Western Asia is being depleted, largely because of emigration.

Many historic Christian communities in Western Asia—notably those in Lebanon, Syria, and Iraq—have been emigrating because of ongoing conflict and violence in the region. In 1910, the region was 23% Christian but in 1970 was 7.3%, and by 2020 the region will likely be only 5.4% Christian.

•    Christianity in Europe grew between 1970 and 2010 but now is in decline.

In 1910, nearly 95% were Christians. Christianity in Europe experienced growth between 1970 and 2010—492 million (75.0%) to 580 million (78.6%)—largely because of a resurgence of religion in Eastern Europe after the fall of the Soviet Union. Between 2010 and 2020, however, the Christian population will plateau and the Christian share of the total population will decline to 78.0%, largely because of deaths and because of individuals leaving the faith.

•    Dramatic growth characterizes both Evangelicals and Renewalists in Latin America: from 3.2% and 4.5% of the population, respectively, in 1970 to 9.1% and 31.1% in 2020.

Many Roman Catholics in the region are becoming Catholic Charismatics or are switching to Evangelical or Renewalist denominations. Pentecostals in particular are gaining an increased role in public life, with the region having recently seen two Pentecostal presidents in Guatemala and the founding of a Pentecostal political party in Nicaragua.

•    In North America, the number of Christians who are not affiliated with any particular church tradition is growing.

The religiously unaffiliated include not only agnostics and atheists (the nonreligious) but also a growing number of Christians who have chosen to disaffiliate with institutionalized Christianity; the majority of these Christians are under age thirty.

•    The internal makeup of Christianity in Oceania is expected to change by 2020.

Anglicanism and Protestantism are the oldest traditions in Oceania, the result of early Western missionary efforts. In 1970 these traditions together represented 46.4% of the population, but by 2020 this percentage is expected to drop to 32.0% (accompanied by an ongoing decline in the actual number of Anglicans). The Roman Catholic share of the population is declining as well, while Independents, Marginals, and Orthodox are all poised to make gains, through both missionary effort (Mormons are particularly active in smaller island nations) and immigration (such as European Orthodox emigrating to Australia).

TAKING ACTION

1.      Identification.

What is your primary identity as a Christian? Are you first a Baptist or Pentecostal? One solution to fragmentation in global Christianity is for all Christians to first identify themselves as followers of Jesus Christ. I follow Damien Keown in his anecdote about many perspectives on Buddhism but only one elephant!

2.      Civility.

How do you treat other Christians? A picture of the Golden Gate Bridge illustrates the negative impact of fragmentation in anecdote about a guy who is about to jump off a bridge (Sociologist Peter Berger shared this joke with me). Note that the vast majority of denominations are in the Independent and Protestant traditions.

3.      Cooperation.

I am arguing against an overemphasis on “the particular” that can lead to atomism: any theory that holds that an understanding of the parts is logically prior to an understanding of the whole. I am advocating “the universal” that emphasizes holism: the theory that whole entities, as fundamental components of reality, have an existence other than as the mere sum of their parts.

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                                                      Navigating Global Mission

New 92-page report Christianity in its Global Context, 1970-2020: Society, Religion, and Mission is available for download at www.globalchristianity.org/globalcontext.

Key findings are arranged in relation to the Edinburgh 1910/Lausanne Movement motto:

“The Whole Church taking the Whole Gospel to the Whole World”

THE WHOLE CHURCH

1. Traditions

The whole church includes all Christian traditions such as Roman Catholics, Orthodox, Independents and others totaling 2.3 billion people in 2010. There were 18,800 Christian denominations in 1970, rising to 41,000 by 2010, expected to rise to 50,000 by 2020. Fragmentation continues to be a major challenge for Evangelicals and other Christians.

2. Shift to the Global South

In 1970, 41.3% of all Christians were from Africa, Asia, or Latin America. By 2020, this figure is expected to be 64.7%. Between 1970 and 2020, each of the six major Christian traditions is expected to grow more rapidly than the general population in the global South. The significance of this shift was recently demonstrated in the election of Cardinal Jorge Mario Bergoglio of Buenos Aires, Argentina, as Pope Francis, the first Latin American head of the Roman Catholic Church.

3. Renewalist and Evangelical movements

Pentecostals, Charismatics, and Independent Charismatics have grown at nearly four times the growth rate of global Christianity. In 1970, Renewalists were 5.1% of all Christians, but by 2010 they had grown to 25.8% (averaging 4.1% growth per year between 1970 and 2010). Evangelicals have also grown from 98 million in 1970 to 300 million in 2010.

THE WHOLE GOSPEL

1. Preaching the Gospel

The number of unevangelized individuals has remained high but is falling as a percentage of the world’s population. The number of unevangelized individuals is estimated to have been 1.8 billion in 1970 (44.3% of the world’s population) rising in number to 2.0 billion by 2010 (but dropping to 29.3%), and expected to reach 2.2 billion by 2020 (29.0%). Thus, even though population growth is increasingly outpacing evangelistic efforts, the percentage of unevangelized individuals worldwide is slowly dropping.

2. Serving the Poor

Among key social issues, the poorest children have made the slowest progress in terms of improved nutrition, and hunger remains a global challenge. Between 2006 and 2009, 850 million people around the world still lived in hunger, 15.5% of the world’s population. Even though extreme poverty has decreased, progress has been slow in reducing child malnutrition. In 2010, nearly one in five children globally was underweight, including one third of children in Southern Asia.

3. Working in Slums

The Christian presence in slums is disproportionately small. Although 1 in 6 people globally lives in slums, it is estimated less than 1 out of 500 Christian missionaries works in slums. In addition, only a tiny fraction (perhaps 1 in 10,000) of national workers (such as pastors) work in slums in their own countries.

THE WHOLE WORLD

1. Religious Resurgence

The percentage of the world that is religious continues to increase. In 1970, nearly 80% of the world’s population was religious. By 2010 this had grown to around 88%, with a projected increase to almost 90% by 2020. Religious adherence is growing largely due to the continuing resurgence of religion in China. In addition, in 1970 Christianity and Islam represented 48.8% of the global population; by 2020 they will likely represent 57.2%.

2. Religious Diversity

Religious diversity is increasing in many countries and regions. Most countries are becoming home to a greater number of religions. The Baha’i have a greater global spread than any major world religion except Christianity. Overall religious diversity is decreasing in many countries in the Global South, however, given the growth of mainly one religion, most commonly Christianity or Islam.

3. Lack of Personal Contact

86% of all Muslims, Hindus, and Buddhists do not personally know a Christian. The countries in which there is least personal contact between non-Christians and Christians are overwhelmingly Muslim-majority countries. On a regional basis, only 10% of non-Christians in Western Asia are thought to have personal contact with a Christian.

Trends IN GLOBAL MISSION

1.      Most Christian outreach never reaches non-Christians.

Over 85% of all Christian evangelism is aimed at other Christians and does not reach non-Christians. Here we have mapped the deployment of the world’s foreign missionaries, but close examination of virtually any Christian evangelistic activity reveals this massive imbalance. Part of the explanation is the unanticipated success of Christian missions in the 20^th century. Much missionary deployment is trying to keep up the growth of the churches in Africa, Asia, and Latin America. What is surprising today is how missionaries from the Global South have also been drawn into mission primarily to other Christians. Deployment studies in Nigeria and India have shown this to be the case, although there is a perceptible shift in the past decade toward work among non-Christians.

2.      Most missionaries are going to places with already-established Christian presence.

The countries that receive the most missionaries per million people are overwhelmingly in Oceania and the Caribbean, both of which have majority Christian populations. In contrast, the countries receiving the fewest missionaries per million people have some of the least-Christian populations, and often either ban or severely restrict missionary activity.

3.      Christians are out of contact with Muslims, Hindus, and Buddhists.

Recent research reveals that as many as 86% of all Muslims, Hindus, and Buddhists do not personally know a Christian. This has to be viewed negatively in light of the strong biblical theme of incarnation that is at the heart of Christian witness. Christians should know and love their neighbors! In the 21^st century it is important to realize that the responsibility for reaching Muslims, Hindus, and Buddhists is too large for the missionary enterprise. While missionaries will always be at the forefront of innovative strategies, the whole church needs to participate in inviting people of other faiths to consider Jesus Christ. Note that Muslims, Hindus, and Buddhists are increasingly found living in traditionally “Christian” lands.

4.      Many of the most responsive peoples are Muslim, Hindu, and Buddhist.

Our analysis in the World Christian Database reveals that of the top 100 most responsive people groups over 1 million in size, 22 are Tribal (9% of the total by population), 31 are Hindu (48%), 31 are Muslim (25%), and 4 are Buddhist (9%). The five most responsive of these are the Jinyu of China (Buddhist), the Khandeshi of India (Tribal), the Southern Pathan of Afghanistan (Muslim), the Magadhi Bihari of India (Hindu) and the Maitili of India (Hindu). What this means is that God himself is inviting the world’s peoples into his family. Christians must be more alert to His initiative. A world map of response to the gospel shows that most responsive groups appear to be in the least-Christian areas.

5.      Mission to the world’s cities and slums is increasingly important.

Today half of the world’s population is found in cities. In 1910 the largest cities in the world were all Christian. Today many in the top 25 have Buddhist, Hindu, Muslim, or nonreligious majorities. One example is the fact that although 1 in 6 people globally lives in slums, it is estimated less than 1 out of 500 Christian missionaries works in slums. In addition, only a tiny fraction of national workers work in slums in their own countries. For the role of cities in human history I recommend Ed Glaeser’s new book Triumph of the City: How our Greatest Invention Makes us Richer, Smarter, Greener, Healthier, and Happier (Penguin Press, 2011).

6.      The Gospel is not being preached to the whole world.

The number of unevangelized individuals has remained high but is falling as a percentage of the world’s population. The number of unevangelized individuals is estimated to have been 1.8 billion in 1970 (44.3% of the world’s population) rising in number to 2.0 billion by 2010 (but dropping to 29.3%), and expected to reach 2.2 billion by 2020 (29.0%). Thus, even though population growth is increasingly outpacing evangelistic efforts, the percentage of unevangelized individuals worldwide is slowly dropping.

7.      Unengaged peoples are being engaged but already engaged peoples are underserved.

There are many ways to divide the world’s peoples and multiple ways to measure Christian progress among them. Our method is to divide each country into ethnolinguistic groups and to measure twenty different ways of evangelizing. Using this model, there were approximately 3,600 least-evangelized peoples in 1970, dropping to about 2,200 by 2010, and expected to further drop to about 1,900 by 2020.

8.      Evangelism and social action are not fully integrated.

Although evangelicals have made many statements about evangelism and social action, these are not well integrated in either field strategies or global strategies.

OBSTACLES FOR CRAFTING MISSION STRATEGY

1.      Lack of knowledge about other religions.

A recent Pew survey showed that American evangelicals are less knowledgeable about world religions than atheists and Jews. Evangelicals answered an average of 17.6 out of 32 questions about world religions accurately while atheists/agnostics, Jews, and Mormons answered over 20 out of 32 correctly. The survey and its results can be downloaded at www.pewforum.org.

2.      Lack of knowledge about solving the world’s problems.

A recent Pew survey showed that Evangelicals think helping the poor and needy is a mark of a good evangelical but that transforming individual hearts is more important than transforming society. At the same time, bold new plans to evangelize and to rescue people have been announced (such as Rick Warren’s PEACE plan). I recommend James Davison Hunter’s To Change the World: The Irony, Tragedy, and Possibility of Christianity in the Late Modern World (Oxford University Press, 2010) for the limitations of our ability to change the world.

3.      Lack of knowledge about geography.

The National Geographic-Roper Public Affairs 2006 Geographic Literacy Study paints a dismal picture of the geographic knowledge of the most recent graduates of the U.S. education system. After more than three years of combat and nearly 2,400 U.S. military deaths in Iraq, nearly two thirds of Americans aged 18 to 24 still cannot find Iraq on a map. “Far too many lack even the most basic skills for navigating the international economy or understanding the relationships among people and places that provide critical context for world events. Inside the United States half or fewer of young men and women 18-24 can identify the states of New York or Ohio on a map (50 percent and 43 percent, respectively).”

4.      Lack of knowledge about history.

A report – Our Fading Heritage (www.americancivicliteracy.org/2008/summary_summary.html)– presents a rather bleak picture of our knowledge of American history, politics, civics, and economics. Of the 2,500 people surveyed from all walks of life, a bewildering number, 71%, failed with an average of 49 (out of 100); American politicians fare even worse, recording a less- than-stellar 44.

5.      Lack of knowledge about the Bible.

“The Christian body in America is immersed in a crisis of biblical illiteracy,” warns researcher George Barna. “The most widely known Bible verse among adult and teen believers is “God helps those who help themselves”—which is not actually in the Bible and actually conflicts with the basic message of Scripture. (Barna Research Online, “Religious Beliefs Vary Widely by Denomination,”
www.barna.org/cgi-bin/PagePressRelease.asp?PressReleaseID=92&Reference=B, June 25, 2001).

6.      Overemphasis on the Clash of Civilizations.

Too much attention has been given to conflict between Muslims and Christians. I recommend Miroslav Volf’s Allah: A Christian Response (HarperOne, 2011) for a discussion on whether or not Christians and Muslims worship the same God.

7.      Lack of hospitality and friendship with non-Christians.

As previously stated, 86% of Muslims, Hindus, and Buddhists do not personally know a Christian. Christians should know and love their neighbors. The whole church needs to participate in inviting people of other faiths to consider Jesus Christ. Note that Muslims, Hindus, and Buddhists are now neighbors in “Christian” lands.

TAKING ACTION

1.      Address fragmentation.

Current strategy makes Christians100 times more effective in splitting existing denominations where Christians already exist than in planting new churches where there are no Christians.

2.      Reduce duplication and competition in mission.

For every cooperative plan that is announced or put in effect, there are two new plans that are not cooperative. With financial resources and personnel there is tremendous duplication.

3.      Prioritize frontier mission.

Church planting efforts among Christians are 100-200 times more vigorous than those where there are few or no Christians. The lack of multiplying churches among Muslims, Hindus, and Buddhists is the result of decades of a minimal approach to other religionists.

4.      Improve Christian-Muslim relations.

Christians should make a special effort to get to know Muslims personally. Some of the most promising venues are universities, businesses, and the arts.

5.      Consider a truly global approach.

The Churches of the Global South are making original contributions in relations with other religions. They have the advantage of living in multi-religious societies and are less likely to perpetuate a ‘Christendom’ model of mission. Non-Western Christians cannot simply provide labor for Western plans to evangelize the world.

6.      Establish viable, legitimate, credible roles for missionaries.

Local people can quickly tell whether or not missionaries have a legitimate role in their society. Just getting a visa is not enough to give credibility in living and working among a people.

7.      Develop a broad-based strategy that includes home churches.

Christians don’t treat each other well nor do they know much about other religions. As a result, strategies focus too much on fear and the ‘other’. A study on mobilizing short-term Westerners for mission among Muslims found that Muslims were consistently depicted as ‘ominous’ and scary. The whole church is needed for global strategy to be effective. Strategies need to go far beyond deploying a team for every unreached people.

Cautionary tale: Honeybee collapse

The devastation of American honeybee colonies is the result of a complex stew of factors, including pesticides, parasites, poor nutrition and a lack of genetic diversity, according to a comprehensive federal study published on Thursday. The problems affect pollination of American agricultural products worth tens of billions of dollars a year. The report does not place more weight on one factor over another, and recommends a range of actions and further research.

In considering shortfalls in world evangelization, there is no single cause.